Published 18 October 2026 · By the Zettle Conveyancing Editorial Team · General information only, not legal advice.
The short version. If you are buying or selling in Queensland, New South Wales or Victoria, the most useful thing to know right now is that the negotiation has moved. Buyer confidence has fallen sharply, stock is building up and sellers are reluctant to drop their asking price, so the two sides are trading terms instead: settlement length, conditions, deposits. Those terms decide what happens if the sale does not go to plan. Unlike the price, their cost is not obvious, which is why they are worth reading closely before you sign.
Key facts at a glance
- The NAB Residential Property Index fell 18 points to −4 in Q3 2026, its first negative reading in six years.
- Property professionals rate sentiment at 4.3 out of 10 (Australian Property Institute survey of 384 professionals), and expect peak-to-trough falls of 8 to 11%, depending on the state.
- Nearly two-thirds of consumers expect mortgage rates to rise (Westpac–Melbourne Institute, September 2026).
- National sales fell about 21% year-on-year in September, with advertised stock up 19.1% (Cotality).
- Median time to sell nationally is 41 days, against 26 a year earlier, and vendor discounting has reached 4.4% in the capitals, a five-year high.
- Brisbane is still up 5.9% on the year but fell 1.5% in September; Sydney is down 7.0% and Melbourne 6.2%.
- The RBA lifted the cash rate to 4.60% on 29 September 2026.
Sentiment turned before the behaviour did
Price indices tell you what has already happened. The more useful numbers at the moment are the ones measuring whether people feel like transacting at all, because those move first.
The NAB Residential Property Index went negative in the September quarter for the first time since 2020. Property professionals surveyed by the Australian Property Institute put sentiment at 4.3 out of 10. Nearly two-thirds of consumers told the Westpac–Melbourne Institute survey they expect mortgage rates to rise further.
Together those point to a particular kind of buyer: one who could proceed, but would rather wait. Higher rates have reduced how much people can borrow, and an expectation of further falls removes any reason to hurry. Sales volumes are down about 21% on a year ago while advertised stock is up 19.1%. Fewer sales and more listings is what that hesitation looks like once it reaches the data.
A hesitant buyer is not an absent buyer. They are a buyer who wants more time, more conditions and more ways out. That is where market sentiment stops being an economics story and starts shaping the document people sign.
Brisbane: still up on the year, but the market has moved underneath it
Brisbane is the most interesting of the three, because the headline number and the conditions on the ground point in different directions.
Values are still almost 6% higher than a year ago, so a seller who formed a price expectation six months ago is not being unreasonable. But listings have risen more than 60% on a year ago, and roughly one auction in five is clearing. In the week to 4 October that was the weakest clearance rate of the capitals, and Brisbane's lowest since November 2008.
So the gap in Brisbane is not really about falling prices. It is a price expectation set under conditions that no longer exist, meeting a buyer who has twenty other options and no reason to hurry. When neither side will move on the number, the negotiation goes somewhere else.
Sydney and Melbourne: further along the same road
Both are down outright over the year, Sydney by 7.0% and Melbourne by 6.2%. The peak is further behind them, so price expectations have had longer to adjust and there is less anchoring to a recent high.
That does not make every property a negotiation. Well-presented homes in sought-after pockets still attract competition, and a cheap listing is often cheap for a reason. But the default has shifted. A buyer who assumes they have to strip conditions out of an offer to stay competitive is working from last year's market.
Why the negotiation has moved to the contract
A price reduction is public and easy to compare. A seller who drops their asking price has visibly accepted less, and every buyer after that sees the new number.
Terms are quieter. A longer settlement, a finance condition, a longer inspection window, a smaller deposit: none of these change the headline, so a seller holding out on price will often concede them instead. For a buyer that can be a genuine win. For a seller it can turn out to be a bigger concession than the discount they refused.
- A longer settlement can mean carrying the property, and sometimes two mortgages, for longer, in a market where the next sale is taking six weeks rather than three.
- A finance condition is a point at which the contract can end. With borrowing capacity squeezed, a lender declining is not a remote possibility.
- A subject-to-sale offer creates a dependency on a transaction the seller cannot see or control, at a time when sales are taking considerably longer.
- A longer inspection window extends the period in which the sale is not yet certain.
None of these show up in the sale price. All of them decide what happens if the transaction does not go to plan, which is why they are the parts of a contract worth having read properly before you sign. Cooling-off rights are not a safety net you can assume: they differ by state and they do not apply to every sale, auctions in particular. Check what applies to yours rather than relying on there being a window afterwards.
What this means if you are buying
- You probably do not need to waive what you would have waived last year. Check the position where you are buying before stripping conditions out of an offer to look competitive.
- Negotiate the terms, not only the price. A seller anchored to a number may concede a settlement date or a condition that is worth more to you than a small discount.
- More choice and longer timeframes are an argument for more due diligence, not less. The time pressure that pushed people into skipping checks has largely gone.
- If you are not sure what a condition does, that is the question to ask, not the clause to accept. The thing to understand before signing is what has to happen for the condition to be met, by when, and what follows if it is not.
What this means if you are selling
- Price the market you are in, not the one you listed in. In Brisbane particularly, a price formed six months ago may be the reason a property is sitting.
- Treat a conceded term as a real concession. Work out what a longer settlement or an extra condition actually costs you before you agree to it in place of a discount.
- Expect more conditions, and read them. Buyers with leverage ask for protections, and each one is a point at which your sale can end.
- A signed contract is not a settled sale. When finance is harder and buyers are selling their own homes first, more contracts end on a condition rather than at settlement. Know which terms in yours could do that, and when each one falls due.
Common questions
Is it a buyer's market in Queensland?
Less straightforwardly than in Sydney or Melbourne. Brisbane values are still above where they were a year ago, but listings have risen sharply and auction clearances are the weakest of the major capitals. Buyers generally have more choice and more time than they did, which is not the same thing as prices having fallen.
Should I wait for prices to fall further?
That is a personal and financial question rather than a legal one, and this is not financial advice. The Australian Property Institute survey found professionals expecting peak-to-trough falls of 8 to 11%, depending on the state, with a recovery from around late 2027. Forecasts of that kind are frequently wrong in both directions, so it is one view rather than a plan.
Should I still include a finance condition?
That depends on your circumstances and the contract, but the pressure to remove one is lower than it was. Pre-approval is generally subject to conditions including a valuation of the specific property, so going unconditional on the strength of pre-approval carries real risk, particularly where values are moving.
One thing worth putting to your conveyancer or solicitor before you sign: if the lender's valuation comes in below the price you agreed, does your finance condition actually let you out? A falling market makes that scenario more likely, and the answer turns on how the condition is drafted rather than on the fact you have finance approval.
Is this the same across all three states?
No. Sydney and Melbourne values have fallen over the year; Brisbane is still up on the year but has slowed sharply over the quarter. Cooling-off rights and the standard contract also differ between Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria, so check the position for the state and the suburb you are buying or selling in.
Sources
- Cotality Monthly Housing Chart Pack, October 2026: dwelling values, sales volumes, time to sell, vendor discounting, listings.
- NAB Residential Property Survey, Q3 2026: Residential Property Index.
- Australian Property Institute, Q4 2026 sentiment survey of 384 property professionals.
- Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment, September 2026: mortgage rate expectations.
- Reserve Bank of Australia, cash rate decision, 29 September 2026.
- Auction clearance figures are preliminary and vary between providers and reporting weeks. Treat weekly numbers as indicative.
General information only. Not legal advice, and not financial or investment advice. Market conditions change, and what you can negotiate depends on the contract and the state the property is in. Figures are current as at 18 October 2026.
